Year-to-date performance favors large caps over mid caps and small caps

Here is how to determine the proportion of your portfolio to invest in stocks and bonds

Subtract 15 years from your age to determine the bond proportion as a starting point.  The rest should be in stocks.  So, if you are 50 years young subtract 15 years to get 35.  35% of your portfolio should be in bonds with 65% in stocks.  Adjust in increments of 5 points based on your risk appetite, but don't exceed the stock proportions below.

Aggressive:  80% stocks / 20% bonds
Moderate:  65% stocks / 35% bonds
Conservative:  50% stocks / 50% bonds

$VIX and $RVX

The volatility spread between small caps and the S&P 500 is getting back to normal

$VIX below 20 bodes well for the stock market

Low gas prices won't last so let's enjoy them while we can

$XLE is a long-term buy.

Stuff a few shares of $XLE in your portfolio if you can pick it up below $90 and like the energy sector for the long-term.

I am sticking to my natural gas bet despite $UNG falling below $20

S&P 500 can surpass 2,000 if P/E ratio settles around 19.50

$FDX still has room to the upside

Facebook rising before reporting earnings next week

$FB

$VTI:$BND stock-to-bond ratio improving

Overweight stocks in your portfolio by scaling in

All major indexes have rebounded

If you missed out on $AAPL when it dipped below $100, just wait for the next dip at the pink line

Delta taking off

$DAL is showing upside momentum.

S&P 500 monthly timing indicator still green

Despite the drop in the market the S&P 500 monthly timing indicator didn't flash a sell signal.

Although jet fuel is an airline's largest expense, airline share prices and oil prices seem to be mostly random

Correlation is currently -0.28 with a 50-week moving average showing -0.07.

Although jet fuel is an airline's largest expense, airline share prices and oil prices seem to be mostly random

Correlation is currently -0.28 with a 50-week moving average showing -0.07.

The volatility spread between the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500 ($RVX minus $VIX) actually turned negative implying the S&P 500 has more risk than small-caps

Another reason to buy into the dip for large caps.

Spikes in $VIX show market buying opportunities

S&P 500 P/E ratio is flashing a buy signal

P/E ratio is rising, but still 4.7% below its 200-day ema. This is a perfect opportunity to scale into the market.

Back to where it started... S&P 500 is at 0.09% year-to-date

$TLT 20+ year treasury bond fund is up almost 21% vs. the S&P 500 at 3%

A declining unemployment rate bodes well for the economy

Current unemployment rate is 5.9% which is back to mid-2008 levels - before the financial crisis.

Spot price for unleaded gasoline is at 2011 levels

$BRENT crude oil is at levels last seen during the summer of 2012

S&P 500 Monthly timing indicator may cross next week

The drop in the S&P 500 is why I wait until all 3 indicators issue a buy signal

$VIX: Buy. RSI: Wait.  PPO: Wait.

S&P 500 could fall to1860 if P/E ratio reaches 18

That's almost 3% lower than 1906.

Major indexes reflect the carnage in their year-to-date performance

$VIX is shooting upward like a bottle rocket

October is living up to its name as a volatile month for stocks

The $CRB commodity index is -1.63% year-to-date after being up as high as +11%

Precious metals are showing losses year-to-date except for gold which is barely holding on

$GOLD $SILVER $COPPER

S&P 500 performance is below bonds year-to-date

$SPY $BND

VTI:BND stock bond ratio favors bonds

For the asset allocator it means an opportunity to re-balance your portfolio if the desired mix has changed significantly

$VTI and $BND show why asset allocation works for long-term investors

A simple 50/50 portfolio mix of the total stock market and total bond market would be up +4.15% while the stock market is down -5.83% from its peak.  Long-term investors should determine their asset allocation mix based on their risk profile and re-balance once or twice a year.

Nervous about the market because you follow it everyday? Don't panic.

What if we removed daily prices from the S&P 500 chart? Replaced them with 10-day (pink), 50-day (blue) and 200-day (green) moving averages to smooth the price data.  And, added Bollinger Bands based on a 50-day moving average set at 1-standard deviation. Statistically speaking, 1-standard deviation explains 68% of price movements assuming a normal distribution.  Well, the market may not be exactly normal, but recent daily price changes fall within1-standard deviation so the ups and downs we are seeing may be quite normal.  So, there is no need to panic. Next, I will show you why using an asset allocation strategy is the best investment approach.

Checking the market everyday will drive you crazy if you are a long-term investor

That's for traders.  Most of us have day jobs so we can't and shouldn't be concerned about daily fluctuations.

With $VIX aiming for the moon the S&P 500 has dropped over 4% since it's mid-September high

Volatility is back with a vengeance as $VIX surges

$VIX is above 18 which was last seen at the beginning of the year and last summer.

$XOM is one stock that I want in my portfolio since it has almost a 3% yield

Support is around $92 so this is a good bet.

Remember that $FDX drug smuggling thing? Me either

$FDX is almost up 10% since it was indicted for helping illegal online pharmacies deliver drugs.

Let's see if $XLE finds support around $88

$XLE is almost 13% below its mid-June high.  As I have said before this is a good time to buy for investors that think differently when something is out of favor that historically goes up.

I had to turn on the heat last night so I still think $UNG is a good bet

Just keep your fingers crossed and wait until winter reveals itself in the Northeast and Midwest.  I am banking on snow and bitter cold!

Mid-caps and small-caps continue to underperform

The one concern that is keeping investors uncomfortable with this market is that mid-caps and small-caps continue to underperform despite positive economic news like the jobs report.  If large-caps start to breakdown then look out. In the meantime, I am bullish until I see more than a dip on an uptrend.

Simple S&P 500 monthly timing indicator for 401K / IRA investors

If you are a 401K or IRA investor, this simple monthly timing indicator for the S&P 500 will help you determine when to re-balance your investment portfolio to be offensive (overweight stocks/index funds/ETFs) or defensive (overweight bonds/cash).  When the S&P 500 (black line) is above its 10-month moving average (pink line, simple moving average or otherwise) the market is bullish and your portfolio should overweight stocks.  If the S&P500 is below its 10-month moving average, overweight bonds/cash.  How much to overweight should be based on your risk profile and time horizon.  More on this later...

Commodity index $CRB is -1.37% year-to-date after being up over 11% in mid-June

Year-to-date performance rankings for major index ETFs remain unchanged

$QQQ leads the way followed by $SPY, $DIA, and $IWM in that order.

$VIX is back in the channel

This is a good opportunity to scale back into the market if you have cash on hand

Weekly charts indicate that the bull market is still intact

3% drop in the market from its mid-September peak reveals that it was a buying opportunity

Bollinger bands set at 1 standard deviation should encompass about 70% of price movements. The channel shows that the dip may have been a buying opportunity.