How to invest $100,000

Track our model $100,000 portfolio.   Investment made on 11/28/2014 using closing prices and exclude commissions. Results will be updated monthly.

Commodities ($CRB) are highly correlated to oil prices so expect underperformance

Commodities ($CRB) are highly correlated to oil prices so expect underperformance

Precious metals will underperform in the near-term

Exxon Mobil ($XOM) - Stock has room to fall more

Avoid.

International bond index has outperformed the stock index

If you want exposure to international investments allocate a portion of your portfolio to international bonds until international stocks start to outperform it.

International stock index have underperformed the S&P 500 year-to-date

No reason to allocate any funds to it in your portfolio

84% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50 day moving average

The market is overbought.

84% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50 day moving average

The market is overbought.

S&P 500 P/E ratio may have peaked around 20

The fear gauge ($VIX) is showing some life

Upward momentum is slowing down for the S&P 500

$SPX

30-year U.S. Treasury bonds ($USB) have outperformed major indexes year-to-date

Good news for consumers - OPEC leaves oil production target unchanged

 Consumers can continue to expect low gasoline prices  
OPEC and oil

$AAPL is shooting upward and doesn't show any signs of slowing down

Facebook is on the move for some reason

I can't think of any reason why $FB is trending up given the spending spree executives warned investors about when Q3 earnings were released.

Low oil prices help the bottom line of U.S. airlines

$DJUSAR

It's interesting how low oil prices are bad for big oil companies, but great for consumers at the pump

In essence, life is good for big oil when it's sucking money out of consumers' paychecks.

Facebook ($FB) is expected to trade sideways until information unfolds about its spending spree

$TWTR has support around $40

Still below its 50-day moving average with no signs of upward momentum.

Avoid United States Gasoline Fund ($UGA) since it doesn't show any upward momentum

Gasoline prices are at levels not seen since October 2010

Less pain at the pump.

Avoid the energy sector ($XLE)

Performance is below the S&P 500 ($SPY)and the total bond market ($BND).

Investments for Dell 401K employees and investors

Dell's plan has 22 investment options.  You only need to invest in 2 funds given performance at the moment so keep it simple. If performance improves across the other options we will update the allocation and you can update your allocation. Below is the stock and bond allocations for conservative, moderate, and aggressive investors.

Equity Index Fund - This fund is essentially the S&P 500.

Bond Index Fund - This fund tracks the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Float Adjusted Index which is a standard bond index.





To adjust your allocations you must logon to Fidelity NetBenefits and choose to rebalance.  Be sure to change your payroll elections too to match your allocation.

Finally, we are creating a newsletter specifically for Dell 401K employees and investors.  It will be available by subscription only.  Send an e-mail to acd@acdfinancial.com.

6 Vanguard ETFs for the moderate investor for the next 12 months

Invest in these Vanguard ETFs or their equivalent Vanguard mutual funds for the next 12 months in the following proportions.

VOO (30%) VHT (20%) VNQ (20%) BND (10%) BIV (10%) BLV (10%)

Re-balance to original proportions after 6 months if any proportion is out of balance by 5 points.

Sector Spotlight: Healthcare continues to be the top performing sector

$XLV

Large-caps are favored over mid-caps and small-caps

$SPX $MID $RUT

$RVX is 50% higher than $VIX

Volatility comparison shows that the current risk/reward in small stocks is not worth it

Small stocks continue to lag as the Russell 2000 is only up 0.75% year-to-date

$VIX - The fear gauge is in a range of "normalcy" although there is nothing normal about $VIX

This means you should ride the stock market wave up.

S&P 500 keeps setting new highs

Aggressive investors: let it ride. Moderates:(like me): Scale out and take some money off the table so you can buy during the pullback. You can't time the market, but you will feel better during the pullback and will be less likely to panic.

$AAPL and $MSFT year-to-date performance vs. S&P 500

Apple is not showing any signs of slowing down

p$AAPL

Microsoft looking to cross $50

$MSFT

Apple and Microsoft are powering $QQQ higher

$AAPL $MSFT $QQQ

Facebook is trading sideways

 I don't expect that to change and I'm bearish on the stock given the last earnings call. $FB

$FDX is absolutely, positively delivering

Good time to re-balance your portfolio to your desired allocation

Stock-to-bond ratio at a new high.   Exchange into bonds or cash to re-balance your portfolio.

All things Vanguard

After having multiple investment accounts spread across various suppliers, we are consolidating and have chosen Vanguard as our sole supplier.  Everything Vanguard.

81.6% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day moving average

Stocks are getting pricey.

Precious metals show losses year-to-date

$GOLD, $SILVER, $COPPER

$BND vs. $IWM - Bond index fund has outperformed small caps

Vanguard's bond index fund is up almost 5% vs. 2% for the Russell 2000.

$VIX is below its 200-day moving average

Spikes are great buying opportunities.  Values below 13 are profiting taking opportunities.

P/E ratio indicate the market is overbought

Large caps are still favored over mid caps and small caps

Year-to-date performance for major indexes

The Nasdaq leads the way followed by the S&P 500.

S&P 500 may be running out of steam

It has traded flat over the last few days.

All major airlines show stock prices pointing up

U.S. airlines are on the rise as crude oil falls

$DJUSAR

Crude oil may find support around $80/barrel

$BRENT

$IBM is the worst performing Dow stock over the last 30 days

Visa is the best performing Dow stock for the last 30 days

$V

Gasoline prices at levels not seen in 3 years