US Dollar vs. Commodities

Precious metals finished in the red

Large caps ruled in 2014

Facebook and Twitter - the tale of two opposites when it comes to performance

$FB +42.8%. $TWTR -43.6%

Long-term bonds beat the performance of the S&P 500

2014 performance of major indexes

S&P 500 finishes up 11.4% for the year

$GOLD, $SILVER, and $COPPER are all down for the year

My Vanguard investment portfolio

Stocks: 70% with 30% in VOO and 20% each in VHT and VNQ; Bonds: 30% with 10% in each bond fund;

$QQQ may set a new high next week

Year-to-date performance of major indexes

$UNG is bearish but may have fallen to fast so a bounce can be expected

Aggressive Traders: invest now and scale in as RSI and Stochastics turn up. Otherwise, wait until both indicators turn up before playing the bounce.

$NATGAS - Bearish

S&P 500 P/E ratio is at the highest level for 2014 indicating the market is pricey

$VIX is back at its 200-day EMA and supports bullish signs for the S&P 500

S&P 500 closed at another record high on light volume

Ichimoku Cloud is bullish in the short-term.

Bullish signs for the S&P 500 as it trades above the Ichimoku Cloud

All signs are bearish for $TWTR as it trades below the Ichimoku Cloud

#stockcharts

$BRENT: A few days of flat oil prices have energy investors thinking that oil prices have bottomed

$XLE up almost 10% for the week.

$BRENT: Ichimoku Cloud is bearish for oil

Facebook ($FB): The market seems rigged at times

There was no reason for Facebook to move toward $80 beyond stock price manipulation to inflict maximum pain on option investors. That's why option investors potentially sitting on the wrong side of a bet should close positions at least 2 weeks before expiration if not earlier instead of keeping their fingers crossed.

S&P 500: Major indicators confirm bullish outlook for stocks in the near-term

Price:  > 20 > 50 > 200 moving averages = Green

Moving Averages:  20 > 50 >200 = Green

RSI pointing up and > 50 = Green

Stochastics pointing up and > 50 = Green

PPO Line pointing up and > 0 = Green

$VIX: A declining Fear Gauge is bullish for the stock market

S&P 500: Ichimoku Cloud flashes Buy signal with price crossing the Baseline

If the Conversion Line (blue line) crosses the Baseline (red line) it will confirm the Buy signal.

Year-to-date performance for major indexes

Major indexes finish up after a turbulent week

DJIA +3.03%  S&P 500 +3.41% Nasdaq +2.40%. Russell 2000 +3.77%

Delta Air Lines may cross $50

Delta has some of the highest airfares and fees in the industry. That coupled with low oil prices will boost $DAL's bottom line.

Oil and gas prices are down over 40% year-to-date

Low gasoline prices leaves more money in the pockets of consumers

S&P 500 and Ichimoku Cloud

Waiting on a signal

P/E ratio indicates stocks are still a little pricey even with the recent drop

Fear gauge spikes to 21

Fear has entered the market.

Let's see if the S&P 500 finds support around 2,000

Next support level is 1,980.

A bad week for stocks as the drop in oil prices and demand spooked investors

Key indexes are still in positive territory

Ichimoku Cloud is bullish for Southwest Airlines $LUV

Southwest will benefit from falling oil prices

Year-to-date performance for the S&P 500 sectors: Healthcare and Utilities are the best performing sectors

Energy and Cyclicals are the worst performing sectors. 

Ichimoku Cloud indicates Facebook is trading sideways and is not expected to move much

Facebook trapped inside the red lines of a December long iron condor

$FB

Small caps year-to-date performance lags the total bond index

$IWM $IWO $IWN $BND

No matter how you slice small caps (growth, value, composite) they are simply underperforming given the risks

$IWM $IWN $IWO $SPY $BND

S&P 500 growth stocks have separated a little from the S&P 500 and S&P 500 value stocks

This is positive for the economy. $VOO, $VOOG, $VOOV

Year-to-date performance for key Vanguard bond index funds

3 Worst Performing Dow Stocks: $CVX, $IBM, $GE

Top 3 best performing Dow stocks: $INTC, $UNH, $CSCO

Put/Call Ratio is rising a little, but is not at an extreme level

High bearish readings imply a buy signal for the market. Low bullish readings indicate a sell signal or at least caution.

$VIX - The fear gauge is not showing any fear in the market

Use stops to protect gains.

P/E ratio indicates that the market is pricey, but there are no signs of slowing momentum

S&P 500 sets another record high

Year-to-date performance of major indexes

All indexes are up.  Small caps still lag.

U.S. Payrolls in November Grew 321,000; Jobless Rate 5.8%

U.S. Payrolls Surge bodes well for the market.  Stay with the trend until it changes.

Philips 401K participants and investors

Philips' 401K plan has 24 investment options.  You only need to invest in 3 funds given performance at the moment so keep it simple. If performance improves across the other options we will update the allocation and you can update your allocation. Below is the stock and bond allocations for conservative, moderate, and aggressive investors.




Here is a example of how $100,000 will be invested.




To adjust your allocations to one of the models above you must logon to Vanguard and choose to rebalance.  Be sure to change your payroll elections too to match your allocation.

Finally, we are creating a newsletter specifically for Philips 401K employees and investors.  It will be available by subscription only.  Send an e-mail to acd@acdfinancial.com.

How to invest $100,000

Track our model $100,000 portfolio.   Investment made on 11/28/2014 using closing prices and exclude commissions. Results will be updated monthly.

Commodities ($CRB) are highly correlated to oil prices so expect underperformance

Commodities ($CRB) are highly correlated to oil prices so expect underperformance

Precious metals will underperform in the near-term